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If Donald Trump wins the presidential election, he will create a conservative Supreme Court until at least 2050, a legal analyst has said.
Writing in his Cafe.com legal blog, lawyer and legal analyst Elie Honig analyzed the Supreme Court judges’ age and likely length of time remaining on the bench.
“If Donald Trump wins, watch for the Court’s current six-to-three conservative majority to become so deeply entrenched that it’ll surely survive for the next generation or two,” he said.
Honig said that the two oldest Supreme Court judges, Clarence Thomas, 76, and Samuel Alito, 74, may retire if Trump is elected, to allow for their replacement by young conservative judges.
“One or both of Thomas and Alito—both true believers in the conservative cause—could step down, surely to be replaced by new like-minded justices in their late 40s,” he wrote.
Newsweek sought email comment from the Trump campaign on Monday.
Honig added that Thomas is an illustration of the longevity of Supreme Court judges.
“Clarence Thomas will, in a few months, begin serving as a Supreme Court justice during a 10th presidential term. Thomas, who took the bench in 1991, is approaching the all-time record tenure for any Supreme Court justice, currently held by William O. Douglas, who served for over 36 years, from 1939 to 1975. If Thomas makes it to the end of the next president’s term, he’ll stand alone atop the list.
“Thomas started years before the internet existed, when Thurgood Marshall, Richard Nixon, Audrey Hepburn and Mickey Mantle were still alive. He’s still going strong, by all outward appearances,” Honig wrote, adding that Thomas’ tenure “is a reminder that, for the unimaginable power any president holds, a Supreme Court justice isn’t far behind, and can wield it for far longer.”
He noted that Trump nominee Amy Coney Barrett was in her late 40s and the other Trump nominees, Brett Kavanaugh and Neil Gorsuch, were in their early 50s.
Honig believes that, if elected, Trump will continue their trend and appoint young conservative judges who could spend decades on the Supreme Court.
Honig also noted that liberal judge Sonia Sotomayor is now 70 and might not last a full Trump term.
“If Sotomayor, the oldest of the liberal justices, doesn’t make it until 2028 … then we’re looking at a seven-to-two conservative edge, now and for a long time hence,” he wrote.
Honig believes that the next Supreme Court nominations will be crucial in determining the future of the court.
“In many respects, a president’s Supreme Court nominations are his or her most important legacy.
“The outcome of our presidential election … will reshape the Supreme Court at a pivotal moment in its history,” he wrote.